Whew... We have been working on BOTH of these papers for a long time! Nature Ecology and Evolution has accepted a paper led by Erin Zylstra and Elise Zipkin (the EZs) tracking monarch population dynamics since 1993 and show that climate accounts for the majority of their population dynamics, but that data before 2004 (the period of their biggest decline) didn't have enough data to fully test all hypotheses. Ecosphere is going to publish a paper led by Naresh showing that carefully choosing global climate models that best capture the historical climate patterns during Texas springs provides the most meaningful projections of monarch growing conditions by the end of the century.