Vaughn Shirey (any pronouns)

Role: Graduate Student
Status: Alumnus
Current Affiliation: University of Southern California
Current Email:
Start year: 2018
End year: 2023
I am interested in the impacts of global change on butterfly communities, especially those in high-latitude regions of the planet. To examine these questions, I use a variety of approaches from hierarchical, statistical modeling to work in both museum collections and in the field.



Shirey, V., N. Neupane, R. Guralnick, & L. Ries. (2024). Rising minimum temperatures contribute to 50 years of occupancy decline among cold‐adapted Arctic and boreal butterflies in North America. Global Change Biology, 30(2), e17205.

K. Wheeler, M. Dietze, D. LeBauer, J. Peters, A.D. Richardson, A. Ross, R.Q. Thomas, K. Zhu, U. Bhat, S. Munch, R.F. Buzbee, M. Chen, B. Goldstein, ... D. Pal, V. Shirey, Y. Song, ..., and L. Zachmann. (2024). ”Predicting spring phenology in deciduous broadleaf forests: NEON phenology forecasting community challenge.” Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 345.


S.C. Mason Jr., V. Shirey, E.S. Waite, M.R. Gallagher, N.S. Skowronski. 2023. ”Exploring prescribed
fire severity changes to ground beetle (Coleoptera: Carabidae) taxonomic and functional community
composition.” Fire 6 (9).

H.C. Stevens+, A.C. Smith, E.R. Buechley, C.H. Şekercioğlu, V. Shirey, K.V. Rosenberg, F.A. La Sort, D.
Tallamy, and P.P. Marra. 2023. “Species-specific ecological traits, phylogeny, and geography underpin
vulnerability to population declines for North American birds.” Ornithological Applications.

V. Shirey and L. Ries. (2023). Population dynamics and drivers of the eastern monarch (Danaus plexippus) across its full annual cycle: a cross-scale synthesis of a model migratory species. Current Opinion in Insect Science 60.

Kawahara, A. Y., Storer, C., Carvalho, A. P. S., Plotkin, D. M., Condamine, F. L., Braga, M. P., ... Larsen, E.A., .... Shirey, V., ... Ries, L., ... & Lohman, D. J. (2023). A global phylogeny of butterflies reveals their evolutionary history, ancestral hosts and biogeographic origins. Nature Ecology & Evolution, 1-11.

Belitz, M. W., Larsen, E. A., Shirey, V., Li, D., & Guralnick, R. P. (2023). Phenological research based on natural history collections: Practical guidelines and a lepidopteran case study. Functional Ecology, 37(2), 234-247.

Shirey, V. and L. Ries (In press) Population dynamics and drivers of the eastern monarch (Danaus plexippus) across its full annual cycle: a cross-scale synthesis of a model migratory species. Invited paper at Current Opinion in Insect Science

Rippel, T. M., Minsavage-Davis, C. D., Shirey, V., & Wimp, G. M. (2023). Simple Machine Learning with Aerial Imagery Reveals Severe Loss of a Salt Marsh Foundation Species. Estuaries and Coasts, 46(4), 1110-1122.


Vaughn Shirey, Elise Larsen, Andra Doherty, Clifford A. Kim, Faisal T. Al-Sulaiman, Jomar D. Hinolan, Micael Gabriel A. Itliong, Mark Arcebal K. Naive, Minji Ku, Michael Belitz, Grace Jeschke, Vijay Barve, Gerardo Lamas, Akito Y. Kawahara, Robert Guralnick, Naomi E. Pierce, David J. Lohman, Leslie Ries. (2022) Lep Traits 1.0: Butterfly Traits 1.0: A globally comprehensive dataset of butterfly traits. Scientific Data 9:382

V. Shirey, R. Khelifa, L.K. M’Gonigle, and M.L. Guzman. 2022. ”Utilizing occupancy-detection models with museum specimen data: promise and pitfalls.” Methods in Ecology and Evolution (Online early).

F.X. Palacio, C. Callaghan, P. Cardoso, E.J. Hudgins, M. Jarzyna, G. Ottaviani, F. Riva, G. Roza, V. Shirey, S. Mammola. 2022.”A protocol for reproducible functional diversity analyses.” In review.

M. Belitz, E. Larsen,V. Shirey, D. Li, and R. Guralnick. 2022. ”Phenological research based on natural history collections: practical guidelines and a Lepidopteran case study.” In Review.


Mason Jr., SC, V. Shirey, L. Ponisio, and J.K. Gelhaus. 2021. "Responses from bees, butterflies, and ground beetles to different fire and site characteristics: A global meta-analysis." Biological Conservation 261.

Larsen, E., Shirey, V. In Press. Method matters: pitfalls in analyzing phenology from occurrence records. Ecology Letters

Shirey, V., Carvalho, A. P. S., & Kawahara, A. Y. (2021). Early Evidence for Sexually Dimorphic, Ultraviolet Eyespots in Parnassius smintheus. The Journal of the Lepidopterists' Society, 75(3), 215-217.

Shirey, V., M. Belitz, V. Barve, R. Guralnick. 2021. "A complete inventory of North American butterfly occurrence data: narrowing data gaps, but increasing bias." Ecography 44(4), 537-547.

Larsen, E.A., V. Shirey. 2021. Method matters: pitfalls in analysing phenology from occurrence records. Ecology Letters 24:1287-1289


Shirey, V. , Belitz, M., Barve, V., Guralnick, R. 2020. "Closing gaps but increasing bias in North American butterfly inventory completeness" In Review.


Cardoso, P., Shirey, V. , Seppälä, S., et al. 2019. Globally distributed occurrences utilized in 200 spider species conservation profiles (Arachnida, Araneae). Biodiversity Data Journal (7): e33264

Shirey, V. , Seppälä, S., Veiga Branco, V., Cardoso, P. 2019. "Current GBIF occurrence data demonstrates both promise and limitations for potential red listing of spiders." Biodiversity Data Journal.


Shirey, V. 2018. Visualizing natural history collection data provides insight into collection development and bias. Biodiversity Data Journal, (6).

Seltmann, K., Lafia, S., Paul, D., ... Shirey, V., et al. 2018. Georeferencing for Research Use (GRU): An integrated geospatial training paradigm for biocollections researchers and data providers. Research Ideas and Outcomes 4: e32449.